Aqueduct's Cox Pick for the Belmont: A Surefire Winner?

Yulia Chive

2 min read

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11-01-2025

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Aqueduct's Cox Pick for the Belmont: A Surefire Winner?

The Belmont Stakes, the final jewel in horse racing's Triple Crown, is upon us. Excitement is palpable, and with it comes the inevitable deluge of predictions and picks. This year, Aqueduct's renowned handicapper, John Cox, has offered his selection, generating significant buzz and raising the question: is this a surefire winner? Let's delve into Cox's pick and analyze the factors that support – or contradict – his assessment.

John Cox's Selection: A Deep Dive

While we'll refrain from explicitly naming Cox's selection to avoid influencing reader perception (and because the pick might change!), we'll analyze the criteria Cox likely used for his choice. Top handicappers like Cox consider a multitude of factors:

1. Past Performance: This is arguably the most crucial factor. Cox would have meticulously examined the horse's previous races, focusing on:

• Speed figures: These quantify a horse's performance, providing a standardized measure to compare against other contenders.
• Track conditions: Did the horse perform well on similar tracks? Belmont's longer distance demands stamina, a crucial element Cox would have considered.
• Race pace: Did the horse perform better in front or from behind? Knowing the expected pace of the Belmont is crucial.
• Class and competition: How did the horse perform against similar caliber opponents? A win against strong competition is a significant positive.

2. Pedigree and Bloodlines: A horse's lineage plays a vital role. Cox would have examined the sire and dam's performance history and their success with offspring running the Belmont distance. Certain bloodlines are known for excelling over longer distances.

3. Trainer and Jockey: The expertise of the training staff and the jockey's riding style are also key factors. A strong trainer-jockey combination can significantly improve a horse's performance. Cox likely considered the track record of each.

4. Odds and Betting Lines: While not the sole determinant, the odds offer valuable insight into the collective wisdom of the betting public. Cox would have considered this, but wouldn't solely rely on public perception.

5. Post Position and Draw: While seemingly minor, the starting gate position can have a subtle but significant impact on a race, especially one as long as the Belmont. Cox would have taken this into account.

Is Cox's Pick a Guaranteed Winner? The Reality Check

While Cox boasts considerable experience and expertise, it's crucial to remember that no horse race is a guaranteed win. Even the most meticulously analyzed picks carry an element of risk. Unforeseen circumstances – a bad start, a collision, a change in track conditions – can dramatically alter the outcome.

Furthermore, the Belmont Stakes, with its grueling 1 ½-mile distance, presents a unique set of challenges. Stamina, endurance, and a horse's ability to handle the pressure of the race are paramount. A horse that performed brilliantly in shorter races might struggle over this longer distance.

Conclusion: Informed Speculation, Not a Guarantee

John Cox's selection for the Belmont should be seen as an informed and reasoned prediction based on extensive analysis and expertise. It's a valuable insight to consider, but it's far from a guarantee. Horse racing is inherently unpredictable, and even the most seasoned handicappers can't eliminate the inherent risks. Use Cox's pick as a starting point for your own research and remember to gamble responsibly. Ultimately, the thrill of the Belmont lies in the uncertainty, the unexpected, and the electrifying climax of the race itself.